Illuminating the Arts-Policy Nexus 

By Robert Valencia

Hugo Chávez, hospitalized with cancer for 10 weeks, may or may not be dying—no one seems sure. Much of the pundit-class, however, is sure of one imminent demise: Regardless of Chávez’s health, they claim that the populist Latin American left is dying. But this month two landmark events undermine those assumptions. First, the triumph of Rafael Correa in Ecuador on February 17, and second, the return of Chávez to Venezuela. These events should be a helpful reminder that it’s still premature to declare an end to all forms of the new left in Latin America.

Peruvian intellectual Álvaro Vargas Llosa published an article titled “The End of the Latin American Left” that sparked the debate. Vargas Llosa is right about Vice President Nicolás Maduro’s lack of charisma to lead the country, as well as Venezuela’s economic woes and Petróleos de Venezuela’s (PDVSA) mismanagement of its coffers. The author considers Cuba the backbone of the radical left and that, thanks to Caracas’ petro-cash flow, it has the ability to wield diplomatic power in several Latin American countries through multinational oil company Petrocaribe. He assumes that neither Ecuador, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Argentina or Brazil have the willingness or power to carry the torch of the radical left in a post-Chávez era. Finally, Vargas Llosa concludes with the following: “There is but one miracle the left can cling to—that Chávez finds a way to rise from his Havana deathbed.”

Though Chávez hasn’t exactly risen from his deathbed, his administration has sought to end any speculation of his death by releasing a picture on February 14, after two months of absence, in which he appeared accompanied by his two daughters. On February 18, it was announced that Hugo Chávez returned to Venezuela, only to be immediately taken to a military hospital in Caracas. The opposition, for its part, asks for an overt and clear communication about Chávez’s true health condition. The outcry for new elections has never been louder, yet many still believe that the uncharismatic Maduro would win.

Meanwhile, Ecuador’s Rafael Correa has been re-elected for a third time, with more than 50 percent of the vote compared to the 23.3 percent former banker Guillermo Lasso could muster. Dubbed the “citizens’ revolution,” Correa said this revolution will “not be stopped by anything nor anyone,” and added that neither him “nor Chavez, nor Raúl Castro nor Daniel Ortega seek the laurels of glory. We’re here to serve our people.” In his article, Vargas Llosa said that Correa is “the intellectual alpha male” of the left-leaning pack, but his country produces five times less oil than Venezuela and is in no position to lead the leftist movement in the region.

Only Brazil has the economic clout to preside over a hardline leftist resurgence. Yet the populist approach of Chávez and his ALBA bloc (Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Ecuador) is nothing like the politics of Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, and Paraguay. The latter left-leaning countries in Latin America have held democratic elections to choose their president. Chile has seen a transition of power between the Michelle Bachelet and Ricardo Lagos administrations in the years 2000-2010. Uruguayan socialist Tabaré Vásquez transferred executive powers to José Mujica in 2010. In Paraguay Nicanor Duarte left his presidential seat to Fernando Lugo in 2008. And Brazil has seen a democratic transition from Lula Da Silva to Dilma Rousseff. Both Chile and Brazil had socialist governments in the last decade which ended with high levels of popularity. In the case of Peru, many feared that Ollanta Humala would follow in Chávez’s footsteps, because he was a military man and a socialist. Nevertheless, he has distanced himself from any populist approach and rather strengthened economic alliances with Mexico, Chile, and Colombia under the Pacific Alliance bloc.

With the growing influence of Brazil, the hardline left of Chávez may be in trouble, but to call a definitive end today to this movement is premature. Right now, Cuba heads the powerful Community of Latin American and Caribbean States Summit (CELAC), and Ecuador, under hardliner Correa, scheduled to follow suit in 2014. Last year, during the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia, country members of the Organization of American States showed their support to Cuba by not signing the final declaration, in light of the United States’ legendary rejection of incorporating the island in the Organization’s summits. The unsigned declaration was considered a call to integrate all countries of the hemisphere, regardless of ideological differences.

In the case of Venezuela, the chavistas still hold the majority of the general assembly and controls 20 of the 24 governorships,. Though the absence of Chávez from the public eye has put the radical left against the ropes, labeling an immediate end to this movement today has been greatly exaggerated.

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Robert Valencia is a Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs and is a contributing writer for Global Voices. He also has a personal blog called My Humble Opinion.

[Photo courtesu of Ukberri]