Illuminating the Arts-Policy Nexus 

DEMYSTIFYING RISK 

By Invitation Only
 

Discussion and cocktails 

with Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat, 

authors of The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing

In the environment of increased trade, capital mobility and global economic integration that has defined recent years, investors have learned the hard truth that in the international economy, politics often matters at least as much as economic fundamentals when analyzing global market performance. Faced with growing political instability and government intervention in markets, too many companies and investors haven't yet learned to read the warning signs: their expertise lies much more in economics than politics, and the temptation is to hope that highly volatile situations -such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation -will be few and far between. Political risk in this new climate is more relevant than ever, and as Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat demonstrate in The Fat Tail, these scenarios--and their catastrophically damaging effects on business--happen much more frequently than we imagine. 

 

This groundbreaking book is the first to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, The Fat Tail reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible.  Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations- from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility- to show that while admittedly unpredictable, political risk is easier to manage than we think. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks stemming from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction-and the authors provide a wealth of unique tools and concepts to help policy makers, corporations, and money managers understand the implications of the "Fat Tail," and to know when political risk analysis works, and when it does not.

 

Thursday, March 26

6 pm to 7:30 pm

 

Author biographies

Eurasia Group President and founder, and World Policy Institute Senior Fellow since 1997, Ian Bremmer's research and writing focuses on states in transition, global political risk, and US foreign policy. Through advisory work and, in 2001, the creation of a Global Political Risk Index (now cobranded with Citigroup), Bremmer's Eurasia Group was the first to bring political science methodology to Wall Street to assess risk. Today, Eurasia Group is the preeminent global political risk consultancy, with 100 full-time employees in New York, London, and Washington; as well as 480 experts in 65 countries worldwide. Dr. Bremmer has authored six books, including The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall (Simon and Schuster, 2006), selected by the Economist as one of the best books of 2006, and Nations & Politics in Soviet Successor States (Cambridge University Press, 1993, 1994), which became the standard college text on the post-Soviet states. He has published more than 200 articles and essays in the Harvard Business Review, Fortune, Newsweek, the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Times, among others. He is a regular contributor for the International Herald Tribune and Slate; a contributing editor at the National Interest, Foreign Policy, and Survival; and a political commentator on CNN, FoxNews, and CNBC. 

 

Preston Keat is a director of research and a member of the management committee at Eurasia Group. He also is the head of the Europe & Eurasia practice group, focusing on emerging markets in Europe and the EU, with specific coverage of Poland and Hungary. He played a key role in developing the Global Political Risk Index (GPRI) methodology, and continues to participate in projects with Eurasia Group's comparative analytics practice. Dr. Keat's professional experience has included work on economic and political transition at the German Marshall Fund of the US, and research and consulting on a number of sectors ranging from finance to heavy industry. He spent several years living and working in Europe, most recently as a Fulbright scholar in Poland. He currently teaches courses in political risk assessment and management as a visiting professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. He holds a PhD in political science from UCLA, a master's degree from the London School of Economics, and a bachelor's degree from the College of William and Mary.