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Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World
In Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World, World Policy Institute Senior Fellow Ian Bremmer illustrates a historic shift in the international system and the world economy—and an unprecedented moment of global uncertainty.
More worrying infact is that
Submitted by Amal Varghese (not verified) on February 25, 2012 - 11:28am.
More worrying infact is that Israel is pressuring Washington to launch such a war. Tellingly, the Obama administration has shown some restraint in the war mongering department but it may have no choice but to support a limited military air strike on Iran's facilities.
Another point my colleague pointed out on which I thought I should address; is whether Israel would unilaterally strike Iran's nuclear facilities. On this point, it is important to remember that Israeli air force capability is no where nearly as proficient as that of the Pentagon, and it is more likely than not that following such an operation, Iran would aggressively move to building a nuclear weapon; moving its operations further beneath ground and in more secret locations. Perhaps this is the only place Washington has some leverage at this stage, given Prime Minister Netanyahu's insistence that Iran is an existential threat; though Ayatollah Khomeini, the Supreme leader of the country continues to maintain that the country is NOT pursuing a nuclear weapons program as it is morally and ethically wrong and fundamentally against Islam's teachings to have such a weapon. A chance of such a strike in numbers? When I asked Joseph Cirincione, an advisor to the State Dept and President of Plough Shares Fund, a nuclear security group in Washington, he gave it a 50/50 chance that Israel will launch such a strike in the next few months before Iran supposedly enters the "Zone of Immunity". What would such a strike look like- I recommend this article by Ehud Eiran :
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137300/ehud-eiran/what-happens-af...
For those who are curious as to whether containment is possible if Washington or Israel strike Iran's facilities, I would recommend the article above. Containment strategies would be unlikely to work given Iran's strong ties to proxy networks that would disproportionately harm U.S and Israeli interests in the region, given the decentralized nature of the regime's affilitations with Hezbollah for example. A conventional war is unlikely, and though Washington would "win" such a war, it would come at an enormous cost to both American and Israeli interests in the region.
Iran is a sovereign country that is still a party to the NPT and since 2004, there has been little material evidence to suggest that it is pursuing such a program. Don't forget they're legally entitled to enriching their uranium upto 20% under the treaty. Some argue that Iran is following a Japan strategy. Perhaps this is true, even then, Iran as a sovereign country is not partaking in any illegal activity.
Israel and Washington's policies may drive Iranian leader's over the edge with their constant war threats. Every possible pressure must be applied on both countries to restrain from such a result.
Other articles to look out for:
Matthew Kroenig's article: " Best Time to Attack Iran"
Colin H. Kahl "Not Time to Attack Iran"
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