TO THE POINT

Al Qaeda REINVIGORATED?

From PRI, Public Radio International, and KCRW, Santa Monica, this is, To The Point, May 19, 2003

INTERVIEWER: JIM MORET

INTERVIEWEES:

KHALED AL-MAEENA, JANE CORBIN, WILLIAM HARTUNG, BRUCE HOFFMAN, ISABELLE LIGNER, CLIFFORD MAY, GREG MYRE, DANA PRIEST

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JIM MORET

A new wave of terror attacks derail peace in and around the Middle East.

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JIM MORET

I'm Jim Moret, sitting in for Warren Olney. He's on vacation. And, this is, To The Point, from Public Radio International, a daily look at the issues Americans care about most. Friday's suicide attacks in Morocco appear to be the work of Al Qaeda terrorists. Coming just four days after similar attacks in the Saudi capital, experts are raising new questions about the effectiveness, and the changing face, of the group recently thought to be badly crippled.

JIM MORET (CONTINUED)

We'll also talk about the latest wave of terror attacks in Israel, and their impact on the potential of the, so-called, Road Map to peace. That's, To The Point. On Reporter's Notebook, later on, the strategy of suicide bombers. Is there a method to the madness. First, here's the news.

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JIM MORET

I'm Jim Moret, sitting in for Warren Olney, back with, To The Point, from PRI. We'll be talking about the questions raised by the nearly simultaneous suicide attacks in Morocco. Is the Al Qaeda terror network as strong as it was before the 9/11 attacks? We'll look at the changing face of Al Qaeda, and it's, apparently, renewed viability. With the capture of high-level officials within the terrorist network, how dangerous is the organization? And, what threats does it continue to pose, overseas and on US soil?

JIM MORET (CONTINUED)

On Reporter's Notebook, a bit later, we'll focus on suicide bombings, the terrorist method of choice for instilling fear and inflicting harm. First, this news update. The fractured Peace Process in the Middle East, the Israeli Prime Minister cancels a US trip following a wave of Palestinian attacks, and imposes a general closure on the West Bank. What does this mean for the newly installed Palestinian leadership?

JIM MORET (CONTINUED)

And, can the derailed Road Map get back on track? Joining us is Greg Myre, correspondent for the New York Times, who joins us from Jerusalem. Thank you, very much, for joining us.

GREG MYRE

Good to be here.

JIM MORET

What is the reaction there to this spade of bombings in Israel?

GREG MYRE

Well, the Israelis are quite outraged, as one can imagine. But, perhaps even more importantly, is the effect that it will have on peace efforts, which began, roughly, a week, or two, ago, with the new Road Map initiative. Israel says that it simply cannot begin taking the steps that are outlined in this initiative as long as these Palestinian attacks continue.

JIM MORET

Well, one senior Israeli official was quoted by the New York Times as saying, quote, in Israel, and as an Israeli, I don't want to hear the words, Road Map, right now. Is that the sense you're getting?

GREG MYRE

Very much so. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon says that there has to be a cessation of violence. Israel cannot afford to pull back its troops, or it would face an even more intense bombing campaign, he says. And, it says, it simply is not going to happen. Now, the problem, the sticking point, is the Palestinians, and their new Prime Minister, Mahmoud Abbas, say, we can't really go and crack down on militants and take actions while Israeli troops are still in our cities and towns. So, here's the sticking point, both sides say the other needs to make the first step.

JIM MORET

Do we know, yet, who's responsible for this latest wave of attacks?

GREG MYRE

No. There has not been a confirmed claim of responsibility. Hamas has claimed the four suicide bombings that we've seen since Saturday night. However, this latest one is a shopping mall in a (word?), in northern Israel, has not had a confirmed claim of responsibility.

JIM MORET

You talk about the Palestinian Prime Minister, Mahmoud Abbas. Does he have any perceived power?

GREG MYRE

It still, it's still to be determined. He is certainly taking some moves, his decision to meet with Ariel Sharon, his appointment of several key Cabinet positions, in terms of the person in charge of security. He certainly has shown a willingness to say the right thing. But, Israel says, can he do the right thing? And, I guess that's really the question right now. Israel has shown a willingness to meet with him. Ariel Sharon, before the bombing today, said that he was prepared to meet with Mahmoud Abbas, again.

GREG MYRE (CONTINUED)

So, Israel says they really do want to give him a chance, but that he, very much, will have to perform, and not just say the right thing.

JIM MORET

But, Prime Minister Sharon also said he will not deal with anyone who deals with Yasser Arafat.

GREG MYRE

That's correct. And, this can certainly complicate things. Mr. Sharon has completely shunned Mr. Arafat for well over a year, now. And, Israel, today, in effect, sort of formalized something they've been talking about, which is, if diplomats come here, don't meet with Yasser Arafat. If you do, you will not be meeting with the Israeli Government. If the Peace Process does advance, at all, this could certainly complicate things.

GREG MYRE (CONTINUED)

Because, the Europeans are part of this whole Road Map initiative, along with the United States, and others. So, if we do see peace talks, that will be a complicating factor. However, with the current violence, it's hard to see that there will be any major peace talk developments.

JIM MORET

What do you perceive is the next step, then?

GREG MYRE

Mr. Sharon cancelled the trip, or, rather, postponed a trip, to the United States, this week, to stay and deal with the crisis. Israel has not taken a strong military response. So, we're still waiting to see if they will take that approach. Or, whether Mr. Sharon is hoping that diplomacy can take hold here. It's really hard to say. As long as we see these attacks, we won't see any movement on the diplomatic front.

GREG MYRE (CONTINUED)

And, if the Palestinians are not able to crack down on these kinds of attacks, then I think we can expect to see some sort of Israeli military response.

JIM MORET

Well, Israel imposed a general closure on the West Bank, barring any Palestinian from crossing the boundary with Israel. What do you think the effect of that will be?

GREG MYRE

Well, Israel has had these tough travel restrictions on Palestinians throughout most of the two and a half years of fighting here. So, this is symbolic, in the sense that, Palestinians can't come from the West Bank to Israel. But, in reality, only a few thousand Palestinians were allowed through each day, those with work permits, who were able to commute to and from work. So, it's, the closure doesn't mean a lot, in terms of keeping numbers of Palestinians out.

GREG MYRE (CONTINUED)

Also, there's a question of how effective it was. Less than a day after it was announced, we see a bomber who, apparently, made his way from the West Bank, into Israel, to set off a bomb. So, I think it's a symbol of Israel's determination to try to prevent attacks, but not clear how effective it will be.

JIM MORET

Greg Myre, correspondent for the New York Times, joining us from Jerusalem, thank you, very much. I'll be back in a moment with, To The Point, from PRI.

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JIM MORET

I'm Jim Moret, in for Warren Olney, back with, To The Point. Until recently, Al Qaeda was considered nearly crippled in many intelligence circles. That was before the attacks last week in Saudi Arabia. And, more recently, on Friday, the bombings in Morocco. Were counter-terrorism experts too confident too soon? What is the latest view on the terrorist leader, Osama Bin Laden, once described as irrelevant?

JIM MORET (CONTINUED)

We're joined by Jane Corbin, reporter with BBC's Panorama, and author of, The Base, Al Qaeda And The Changing Face Of Global Terror. Thank you, very much, for joining us.

JANE CORBIN

Thanks, Jim.

JIM MORET

Talk about this changing face of Al Qaeda, in your view.

JANE CORBIN

Well, I think it's gone global. Bin Laden always had, you know, the ideal that he would become a, sort of, worldwide movement, not just an Arab terrorist organization. If you look at his features, even back before the September the 11th attacks, he talked about the importance of appealing to Muslims across the board, not just in the Arab States, but in the Far East, in the Western countries, where there are Muslim communities.

JANE CORBIN (CONTINUED)

And, harnessing dissatisfaction amongst those communities, and turning them to his brand of hatred, if you like, in order to win more supporters. And, I think that we've seen, since the War On Terror began in Afghanistan twenty months ago, that Al Qaeda is unable to operate in its more traditional heartlands. But, it has been able to spread its fighters to devolve more power to cells in a large variety of countries, to give more autonomy to them.

JANE CORBIN (CONTINUED)

And, yet, still, regain a certain, or, retain a certain amount of command and control at the center. I think it makes it very dangerous. Because, there's no doubt, as we saw particularly in Morocco, that they're able to recruit large numbers of suicide bombers now. We had four or five simultaneous attacks, each involving several people. And, I think this gives an idea of the ability to plan, and to organize, and to attract followers to the cause. I think it makes him very, very dangerous.

JIM MORET

In your view, is the infrastructure, even though it's now in cells, as you say, is it still intact? And, is it still as lethal as before?

JANE CORBIN

Well, you know, when we talk about the infrastructure, I think we tend to think of it, probably, in Western terms. That, the thing about Al Qaeda is, that it has changed over the years. It has shown adaptability, flexibility, and a willingness to reinvent itself. So, for example, five or six years ago, when I was first investigating them, when Bin Laden was based in Sudan, it was very much a, sort of, corporate structure.

JANE CORBIN (CONTINUED)

He had openly ran offices in front companies. When he was forced into exile in Afghanistan, he retained, essentially, the trappings of the state. He hijacked Afghanistan, and, more or less, dictated to the Taliban how the place was run. But, once he came under pressure, in the War On Terror, he showed himself very adept at running an underground organization, with an infrastructure that was very different.

JANE CORBIN (CONTINUED)

And, I think, although America has had undoubted success, and intelligence agencies in other Western countries, including our own, in Britain, in Spain, and in France, in arresting and seizing key members of, what you might call, the middle management of Al Qaeda, they still retained some infrastructure. And, obviously, enough to plan these kinds of attacks. I think they're depending more and more on local cells, leaving it up them to choose the targets and the best methods of attack.

JANE CORBIN (CONTINUED)

And, then, as it were, feeding them, perhaps, with the money, the explosives, and some indication of timing from the center. So, the infrastructure has changed. But, it still exists in some form.

JIM MORET

I know we have time constraints with you. Thank you, very much, for joining us. Jane Corbin, a reporter with BBC's Panorama. She's a specialist on Al Qaeda. Let's turn, now, to Isabelle Ligner, a reporter with Agence France Presse. She joins us from Casablanca. Bring us up-to-date on the mood there, if you can.

ISABELLE LIGNER

Well, first of all, I have to say that it was a great shock for all the people of Casablanca, that these, that their town was the target of such attacks. And, so many attacks, officially. And, so, I have to say that the mood is mainly shock. And, people cannot believe what happened, at the moment.

JIM MORET

And, is there ...

ISABELLE LIGNER

(overlapping) But, I saw that ...

JIM MORET

(overlapping) ... is there a sense that there is a, I say, a bringing together of various cells, that culminated on these attacks? Or, that the attackers actually came from this area?

ISABELLE LIGNER

Well, it seems that the attack was carried out by people from a quarter of Casablanca, which is called, Sidi Moma, where I am, at the moment. And, in fact, eight of the Kamikaze were actually from these (word?) . What is not sure is whether they were trained abroad, or not. That's what the Ministry Of Justice said today, the American Minister. And, so, we're still waiting to hear some details from the authorities here. But, what we can say, that, at least eight of the attackers were from Casablanca, and were American Muslims.

JIM MORET

When you talk about the shock in the area, is there a sense there of why Morocco was a target? And, does it strengthen the resolve to join the US in this, so-called, War On Terror?

ISABELLE LIGNER

I think the sense is that Morocco, especially, for instance, by organizations like Al Qaeda, as an ally of the United States, especially regarding Israel, and, also, regarding Iraq, lately. And, so, there were several warnings from the Al Qaeda organization that Morocco could be their next target in Pakman.

JIM MORET

Now, we said you are with Agence France Presse. Talk about the government, the French Government’s involvement with the United States in this investigation.

ISABELLE LIGNER

Well, we could see already that some policemen, some special forces, dealing with terrorism, have been sent here. They're working with the American associates, and the investigation scenes. And, it seems that it's going to be an international investigation, because the American authorities are talking, already, about an international network of terrorism. So, obviously, they need all the help that they can get from the States and from France.

JIM MORET

The area you're reporting from, Sidi Moma, has been described as a shanty town. Give us an overall view of where you are.

ISABELLE LIGNER

Well, it's a very poor area, which is situated at the east of Casablanca, very near the industrial areas. And, in fact, people came from the countryside to work in these industrial areas a few decades ago. And, now, it seems that most of the young men do not have work. And, obviously, are pretty easy targets for radicals and Islam.

JIM MORET

Were people there surprised about the apparent reach of Al Qaeda into this area? Did they feel invulnerable, or, perhaps, safe, in some regard, before this attack?

ISABELLE LIGNER

Well, now, they say that there were some warnings, already. Last year, a cell of Al Qaeda, or, at least, that's what the American authorities are saying, was arrested in Morocco. So, that was one of the big warnings. And, also, there was the rise of the Islamist Party in the last election, in September, last year. So, there were signs that Islamism was rising in Morocco. But, all I can say is, that people did not expect this kind of attack.

ISABELLE LIGNER (CONTINUED)

And, especially, did not expect the kamikaze in Morocco, because they say it's not part of the culture to die this way, and to die by killing other people.

JIM MORET

But, if you say that there were warning signs, do you have a sense that the population there feels betrayed by the officials there?

ISABELLE LIGNER

No, not at all. Because, I mean, the population was not really aware of these warnings. You have very little part of the population which is actually reading the papers, and so on. So, the population, and (word?) the very poor quarters did not know about this. And, they feel completely amazed at what happened.

JIM MORET

And, what can you tell about the peace protest before the Iraq war? There were some, what, one hundred forty thousand protesters? And, how do, if any way, do you think this plays into these attacks?

ISABELLE LIGNER

Well, I think there was a lot of anger at, in the population, in the Muslim population, at the prospect of a war, an American war against Iraq. Because, they felt, like a lot of Muslim populations around the world, and other populations, I have to say, that this war was not justified, on any grounds. And, therefore, I think that they keep comparing what is happening in Israel, where they feel that the States is backing the Israeli policy, and not doing anything for Palestinians. And, so, there was a lot of anger in the last month. And, I think that this can be part of the explanation of what happened.

JIM MORET

Isabelle Ligner, reporter with Agence France Presse, thank you, very much.

ISABELLE LIGNER

Thank you.

JIM MORET

Turning, now, to Dana Priest, reporter for Washington Post, and, also, the author of, The Mission, Waging War And Keeping Peace With America's Military. Thanks for joining us, today.

DANA PRIEST

Glad to be here.

JIM MORET

What is your take on US intelligence, and whether they were surprised by, either, the suicide bombings in Riyadh, or in Casablanca.

DANA PRIEST

I think they're very different cases. They were aware of problems in Saudi Arabia for many years. In fact, one of the great frustrations has been to try to get the Saudis to be more cooperative in cracking down on Al Qaeda cells, or related financing in the kingdom. And, while, of course, they were worried when it happened, and are still desperate to try to figure out who would, who did it, Morocco is really a very different case.

DANA PRIEST (CONTINUED)

Because, in Morocco, there was very good intelligence cooperation with the United States. And, Moroccans, like the Jordanians, actually, work hand-in-glove. They do a lot of training together, and they're, they do a lot of intelligence exchanges, which the United States points to as really exemplary, especially after 9/11. So, when Morocco happened, it was a great surprise to many of the counter-terrorism analysts, both, at the CIA, and State Department, and elsewhere.

DANA PRIEST (CONTINUED)

Because, they thought they knew what they were dealing with in Morocco. And, then, that poses the possibility that there are cells out they just don't know about. Or, what seems more likely, in this case now, one day later, is, that it was a Moroccan homegrown terrorist group, with links to, and support from, Al Qaeda. Which makes it a little bit more difficult to find out about.

DANA PRIEST (CONTINUED)

So, they are getting a lot of cooperation from the Moroccans, who, as you probably heard, have arrested a number of people in relationship to the incident.

JIM MORET

In the Washington Post you quote one counter-terrorism expert talking about Al Qaeda, saying, I think they're back. We've seen the hiatus. And, effectively, the hiatus is over.

DANA PRIEST

And, this has been something that's hard to explain to people. Because, the number of us, who cover intelligence, wrote, just ten days ago, that there was progress in the War On Terrorism. I think it's both things. Both, they have killed and captured a lot of senior leadership. They really do think that Al Qaeda, as an organization, is not where it was right after 9/11. However, what they don't know is, is it growing some other way? Which a lot of people do suspect.

DANA PRIEST (CONTINUED)

That, the lower-level leaders, or lower-level operatives, are moving up into leadership positions. And, that's what you're seeing now. And, in fact, they are wanting badly to show that they're still a viable organization. And, a lot of intelligence experts, actually, have predicted, in the last week, that what you'll see is a couple more, what they would call, smaller scale, in no way taking away from the viciousness of the attack, but it's not on the level of airplanes flying into buildings, small scale suicide bomber, car bomber, incidents, that target several different buildings, in different places in the world.

DANA PRIEST (CONTINUED)

So, that, together, they will have an echo chamber effect, and garner a lot more worldwide attention, which is what Al Qaeda needs right now to stay. To get financial support, and, also, to let potential recruits know that they're still around.

JIM MORET

And, in looking at the Bush Administration, what would you suspect is the reaction, now, one to two weeks after many in the Administration suggested Al Qaeda was crippled?

DANA PRIEST

You know, I don't think people are surprised. And, in fact, I do think, in order to get them to talk about being crippled, all of them said, look, if we talk about this and something happens, people are going to throw it back in our face. So, they, in all honesty, believe that the 9/11 infrastructure's been crippled, but think this is over, at all. And, so, they're not surprised that these sorts of things come up. I think it redoubles their energy to go after them.

DANA PRIEST (CONTINUED)

Because, I really do sense a long-term, long haul effort on the part of counter-terrorism investigators, and intelligence officials, on this.

JIM MORET

There's been talk about a great deal of chatter, if you will. Much as we saw before the September 11th attacks. What do you think counter-terrorism officials are anticipating, or concerned about, now?

DANA PRIEST

The country they're most concerned about is Kenya, where they said that the level of that sort of communications was as intense as it was in Saudi Arabia before those attacks. So, that's why the State Department has issued warnings, and the British Airways has stopped into Kenya. They really thought that was going to be the next spot. There are, however, very intense indicators around Jedda, in Saudi Arabia, and back to Africa.

DANA PRIEST (CONTINUED)

All of East Africa's under a warning. And, then, there are places in Asia. The Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, singled out among them. And, I think that they do believe that they don't know (laugh) where all of the real threats are coming from. So, there is a level of heightened anxiety, heightened threat reporting. However, you'll notice that the alert system here has not been raised to orange. And, that's, ultimately, a good sign.

DANA PRIEST (CONTINUED)

But, it's also a sign that they are just not thinking that sort of thing, up as of yesterday, and this morning (music), in the United States.

JIM MORET

Dana Priest, with the Washington Post, author of, The Mission. Thank you, very much, for your time.

DANA PRIEST

Thank you.

JIM MORET

I'll be back in a moment with, To The Point, from PRI.

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JIM MORET

I'm Jim Moret, sitting in for Warren Olney, today, on, To The Point. We're talking about the latest attacks by Al Qaeda, in Saudi Arabia and Morocco. In a moment, we'll get a sense of how the Bush Administration is dealing with this renewed and continuing threat. But, first, we turn to the Middle East perspective, from Khaled Al-Maeena, editor-in-chief of the Arab News, an English daily newspaper based in Saudi Arabia. He's joining us by cell phone. Thank you, very much, for joining us.

KHALED AL-MAEENA

Thank you.

JIM MORET

Have these attacks given rise to a sense of vulnerability, in your view, among the Saudis?

KHALED AL-MAEENA

Well, they have. But, in a sense, they have made people more conscious, and expecting anything. But, the mood in Saudi Arabia is one of sadness, because this is the first time an attack of this nature has taken place against civilian targets. And, people are upset because, in our social mode, it's very bad to, sort of, have people who are guests in your country be hit, and maimed, and killed. And, I think this is very sad. So, that is the mood, one of sadness and of concern.

JIM MORET

And, who, in your view, is being blamed by the Saudis, for these attacks?

KHALED AL-MAEENA

Well, yesterday, the Minister Of Interior did point a finger at the Al Qaeda. We believe that these extremist cults could be Al Qaeda, could be a fragmentation of Al Qaeda, sure could be offshoots, and cells, or copycats. But, on the whole, there is no arguing that these are terrorists, and bloody organizations.

JIM MORET

And, do you feel that the Saudis are being unfairly blamed for actions of Al Qaeda in the Western press?

KHALED AL-MAEENA

Well, I think, yes, you are. What happened is, that they have applied the principle of connective guilt on all of us. And, the problem is that all Saudis have now been tainted with this. And, now, what is more painful, and I say it very frankly, that this is a country which is nonviolent. So, there are no civil crimes, no armed robberies, no murders.

KHALED AL-MAEENA (CONTINUED)

But, since September 11th, because sixteen of the nineteen were from this part of the world, many of these young people who went out to fight in Afghanistan, and other forgotten wars, went to do worse things. So, we have now, there has been a blanket judgement on all of us. And, I think we resent that.

JIM MORET

Khaled Al-Maeena, editor-in-chief of the Arab News, an English daily newspaper based in Saudi Arabia, joining us by cell phone. Thank you, very much, for your time. We turn, now, to Clifford May, president of the Foundation For The Defense Of Democracies, a research institute focusing on terrorism, that was created in the wake of the attacks on September 11th. Thank you for joining us.

CLIFFORD MAY

Good to be with you.

JIM MORET

You say that Al Qaeda, in your view, is like a wounded animal, alive but not well. But, clearly, still dangerous, right?

CLIFFORD MAY

Yes. Wounded animals, as you know, can be very dangerous. And, there's no question that, since 9/11, a lot of senior Al Qaeda members have been taken out, in one way or another. But, it's a big organization. And, thousands, really tens of thousands, of terrorists have been trained by the organization. And, they formed into cells in dozens of countries around the world. So, it's still very dangerous, and will be for a while. And, I dispute those who would argue that President Bush ever said anything different than that.

JIM MORET

Well, how surprised are you, then, by this recent wave of violence?

CLIFFORD MAY

Not very surprised, actually. I mean, the good news is, if you can call it good news, that we haven't seen a terrorist attack since 9/11, by Al Qaeda, on US soil. And, I think you have to assume that's not because Al Qaeda wouldn't like to do that. We, also, didn't see terrorist attacks during the military intervention in Iraq. And, again, you have to assume that Al Qaeda would have liked to do that. Instead, you've seen terrorist attacks in Bali, in Mombasa, at a synagogue in Tunisia, probably in Morocco.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

And, of course, in Saudi Arabia. What's surprising about the Saudi Arabia attack is that, in a way, the Al Qaeda is fouling its nest. I don't say that all Saudis are pro Al Qaeda. I know that's not true. But, Al Qaeda has substantial support within the Wahabi religious establishment, within the government, within the Royal Family, and among the population. And, I think they have threatened that, somewhat, by attacking at home.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

Even though, we must understand, this is not an attack against the ruling hierarchy, it was an attack against Westerners living in Saudi Arabia, and those Muslims who are bold enough to live among the Westerners, which makes them suspect in Wahabi eyes, or in Al Qaeda eyes.

JIM MORET

Well, Mr. May, you may have heard Khaled Al-Maeena, our previous guest, the editor-in-chief for Arab News, say that, in his view, the Western press has unfairly tainted the Saudis. In effect, putting them in bed with Al Qaeda.

CLIFFORD MAY

He's right, in a way, and he's not right, in a way. He's not right, in the sense that, there is much that the Saudis have to do to reform if they are really going to be what they say they are, which is America's allies in the War Against Terrorism. That's simply not true. They've never come clean on their involvement in 9/11. They were never cooperative, in terms of the attacks on Kobar Towers. We don't know if they will be here.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

I think where the Western, where he's right, is that the Western press hasn't always been clear. That, there are splits within Saudi Arabia. That, public opinion is not monolithic. And, that the House Of Saud, the Royal Family, is not monolithic. Things that I've read in the Arab News, recently, has been very encouraging, and been very candid. But, what I heard from Abdel Al-Jubar, yesterday, on almost every TV station (laugh), on all the Sunday shows, was very different from that.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

What we've seen from Crown Prince Abdullah, some of his statements have been very encouraging, and very candid. But, again, very different from what either Prince Bandar, the Ambassador, or Abdel Al-Jubar, have been saying. So, I think there is a difference in Saudi society. I don't know how it splits. I don't know that you have proper public opinion polls in a country like that. And, don't forget, we don't have very good reporting on Saudi Arabia.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

And, it's not because reporters don't want to report. You cannot establish a bureau in Riyadh and have free access in that country. It's still a police state, that keeps out infidel reporters.

JIM MORET

Let's bring another voice into this discussion, William Hartung, senior fellow and director of the Arms Trade Research Center, at the World Policy Institute, and author of the forthcoming book, Power Trip, US Foreign Policy After September 11. Welcome.

WILLIAM HARTUNG

Thanks for having me.

JIM MORET

What's your view, when you hear a claim that the Administration is doing a good job in harming Al Qaeda, as we've just heard, basically, from Mr. May?

WILLIAM HARTUNG

Well, there's no doubt (clears throat) I think putting the Taliban on the run, getting rid of their sanctuaries in Afghanistan, taking out some of the top leadership, have all been important steps. And, I think President Bush, I truly believe that fighting terrorism is his top priority. He's put a lot of energy into it. So, I have no quibble on that score. I think, my issue is that, I don't think the problem has been defined properly. And, I don't think the strategy fits the threat.

WILLIAM HARTUNG (CONTINUED)

After September 11th, an aide to Secretary Powell gave an interview to CNN, where he said that Powell was uncomfortable with the idea of talking about a War On Terrorism, because it implied that military methods would be paramount. When, in fact, this should be a campaign that used the whole foreign policy tool box, diplomacy, law enforcement, economic sanctions, and, particularly, they're going to need cooperation from many, many countries to deal with an organization that our government believes may have cells, or remnants, in as many as sixty nations.

WILLIAM HARTUNG (CONTINUED)

Even Secretary Rumsfeld wrote something for the New York Times, in the Fall/Winter period of 2001, saying, this is a new kind of war. Where, not only do we need military personnel and camouflage, we need bankers and pinstripes, we need, you know, computer programmers in grunge wear to protect our cyber assets, and so forth, from attack. So, I think, where my quibble is, that they're not fighting that war. They're fighting a war of preemption.

WILLIAM HARTUNG (CONTINUED)

They're putting a focus on Iraq, which has very little to do with Al Qaeda, when they're not putting their best diplomatic foot forward, and their best pressure forward, against allies, like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, which do have very strong links to Al Qaeda. And, I think, the way that they went into Iraq, where they alienated allies, like France and Germany, which our own State Department says have been the most helpful countries, in terms of dealing on the law enforcement and intelligence fronts with Al Qaeda, I think they've lost their way a bit.

WILLIAM HARTUNG (CONTINUED)

And, I'm hoping, now that the military phase, the, sort of, anti-Saddam phase, of the war in Iraq is over, that they will consolidate their gains, and they'll think a little more about how to rebuild some of those relationships, internationally, that we are going to need to cut off the financing for Al Qaeda. As Mr. May pointed out, we don't know what kind of cooperation we're going to get from the Saudis.

WILLIAM HARTUNG (CONTINUED)

Even in investigating this latest attack. Which has been one of the more damaging, and more skillfully coordinated, attacks to happen on Saudi soil. So, I think I wouldn't, I certainly wouldn't go so far as to say, Bush hasn't accomplished anything. But, I have real questions, and real doubts, about the heavy military emphasis of the strategy against some of the other tactics we're going to need.

WILLIAM HARTUNG (CONTINUED)

And, I think, to the extent that we're perceived as being this, kind of, aggressive unilateralist country, kind of, you know, as the Spanish put it, during the run up to the Gulf War, we want to see more Powell and less Rumsfeld out of this Administration. And, I think that's what we really need. We need more of a balance of diplomacy with force.

WILLIAM HARTUNG (CONTINUED)

What we need, as another, a former Clinton person, Bob Galucci, said, I'm all for diplomacy backed by force, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to have force without a diplomatic strategy. And, I think, at times, the Bush approach has bordered on that.

JIM MORET

You're listening to William Hartung, senior fellow and director of the Arms Trade Research Center, at the World Policy Institute. Clifford May, president of the Foundation For Defense Of Democracies, let me get your reaction, first, to Mr. Hartung's assessment, that this war, calling it a war is, perhaps, too simplistic, and the way the Bush Administration is fighting that war is ineffective.

CLIFFORD MAY

I guess, where I disagree is that, using the term, war, implies, what he says it implied. We fought the Cold War. And, the Cold War did have a military aspect, but it was much more diplomatic, it was much more an economic competition. Even World War II, there were roles for other than the military. And, I think everybody uses the term. And, it's not Bush's term.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

The term was coined, really, by, I think, Elliot Cohn, author of, Supreme Command, and then used, particularly, by James Woolsey, who was director of Central Intelligence under President Clinton. I think Bush's policy is actually much more nuance than that. The Bush doctrine, essentially, says, we would like the Islamic World to join the Free World. And, we reach out a hand in friendship to those who will.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

But, those who use terrorism against us, and our allies, you're going to get mailed fist in response. Now, that may mean military. And, it's important that we deprive terrorists of Rogue State sponsors. That's what we did in Afghanistan, that's what we've done in Iraq. It may have to happen again. You will also need clandestine methods. I think it's also unfair to suggest that it's our fault that we've had this break with France and, to a certain extent, with Germany.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

I think France clearly had another agenda. It was a neutralist agenda. And, it was an agenda that said that France wanted to lead Europe as, in their words, a counter-weight to the United States. You can fault the Foreign Service for not having recognized that was the direction France was going, as Newt Gingrich has, and I think you can fault the Foreign Service for not having been able to sell our policies better.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

But, I don't that it's our fault that we've had this break with France, who doesn't appear to want to be our ally in this. And, it was, essentially, saying to the terrorists of the world, don't attack us, we're not really on America's side, we're, sort of, defending you. I think it's, I think French policy, under Chirac, is reprehensible, and not our fault.

JIM MORET

If the timing of the attacks doesn't surprise you, though, Mr. May, what about the location of the attacks? What does that say to you about the manner in which Al Qaeda is operating, and the message they're trying to send?

CLIFFORD MAY

Well, I'm not sure their attack in Saudi Arabia was a strategic attack. It may have been a convenient attack. In other words, in Morocco, and Saudi Arabia, both, that may have been places where they could operate, and, so, did. If, I'm not sure that that was a, necessarily a message. If they could have done what they did in Saudi Arabia, in New York, or Los Angeles, wouldn't they have?

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

And, that may be difficult to do because of the policies of the current government, including people like John Ashcroft, who have been heavily criticized, including on this program, by some of your guests. But, I do think what they've done, in any case, whether intentional or not, is a challenge to the House Of Saud, to the Saudi authorities, who are going to have to decide, at some point, what to do, and whose side they're on.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

Al Qaeda has not targeted Saudi leaders, or diplomats, but they don't mind embarrassing them, on the basis that they are hypocritical because they use infidel troops to defend themselves, and because they preach Wahabism, sort of, Puritism at home, but then, they go abroad and they have wonderful big houses at Vail, and serve great scotch, and go gambling in Monaco, and that sort of thing. The Wahabi complaint with the House Of Saud is, that it's not sufficiently Wahabi.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

At a certain point, the Royal Family has to make a decision. Are they going to continue to allow Saudi citizens to finance terrorism around the world? And, are they going to give billions of dollars to the Wahabi clerics to preach the kind of doctrine that it's preached in mosques of Saudi Arabia every Friday? And, it comes out of the universities, and the schools, and too many newspapers, which says, essentially, that Christians, and Jews, and Shiites, and Sufis are all vermin.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

And, they're not expected. Somebody like Osama Bin Laden is going to come along and say, if they're vermin, doesn't somebody have to be the righteous exterminator, and get rid of these vermin for us? And, that's been going on while Saudis have said, no, no, we're friends with you, the Americans. They're not really. This is a country that has no religious freedom, where conversion from Islam can be Capital Punishment, where there can't be a Christian church established.

CLIFFORD MAY (CONTINUED)

The Saudis, at some point, and I think this may be closer now because of this attack, have to make some real decisions about the future, and what's the best route to save the monarchy and keep the country from falling apart.

JIM MORET

Mr. Hartung, what is your sense of the role of Saudi Arabia in assisting us in this war? And, what do you think it says about the timing and the location of these attacks?

WILLIAM HARTUNG

Well, I think, I agree, almost entirely, of Clifford May's assessment of the Saudi regime. They're not Democrats, by a long shot. They have kind of built themselves on a very conservative strain of Islam, and so forth. So, I think the attacks were strategic, in this sense. One of Bin Laden's main points of grievance is the US presence in Saudi Arabia.

WILLIAM HARTUNG (CONTINUED)

So, to attack the Vanell Corporation, which, since 1970's, has been training the Saudi National Guard, which has been described, by Jane's Defense Weekly, as the praetorian guard that provides internal security for the Saudi regime. In essence, defending it against internal rebellions, defending it, to some degree, against its own people. You couldn't find a clearer message. And, I think it may be true that it's not as easy for them to attack a New York, or a Los Angeles.

WILLIAM HARTUNG (CONTINUED)

And, let's be thankful for that, but I don't think that has so much to do with John Ashcroft as it does with the fact that those things are very difficult to do. And, by virtue of having done the Trade Center, everybody involved in our government is much more aware and alert than they were before. So, I think, our challenge, now, is how to have some sort of transition in Saudi Arabia. You don't want a Fundamentalist uprising that overthrows the regime.

WILLIAM HARTUNG (CONTINUED)

I think you may have to ease out of a monarchy, towards a more system. But, it would be ideal that that not be seen as being driven only, or primarily, by the United States, because then the legitimacy of whatever comes next will be at issue on the ground in Saudi Arabia. But, if we could work with our partners in the region ...

JIM MORET

(overlapping) I'm sorry ...

WILLIAM HARTUNG

(overlapping) ... (unintelligible) and so forth, I think we could make ...

JIM MORET

(overlapping) Let me just jump in here. I'm sorry. That was the final point we had. We are running out of time. But, our thanks to Clifford May, and to William Hartung. Thank you, both, for taking the time talking with us, today, about this rather complex issue. Thanks to all of our guests, in fact. They appear to be random acts of horrific violence. Is there a logic to suicide terrorism.

JIM MORET (CONTINUED)

We'll focus on this preferred weapon of war, and learn from the Israeli model on how these attacks have impacted society, and what, if anything, can be done to prevent them. We'll be back in a minute with, To The Point, from PRI.

[commercial break]

JIM MORET

I'm Jim Moret, sitting in for Warren Olney, back with Reporter's Notebook on, To The Point. Suicide bombers have become the weapon of choice by terrorist groups. Looked upon, by the terrorists, as inexpensive and highly effective devices of terror and carnage. I spoke earlier today with Bruce Hoffman, terror expert with the RAND Institute, and author of a piece in the June Atlantic Monthly, titled, The Logic Of Suicide Terrorism. I asked him about the strategy behind suicide bombing.

[previously recorded audio clip]

BRUCE HOFFMAN

The strategy is, inherently, a war of attrition. And, what they're attempting to do is wear down the resolve of whoever their opponent is, whether it's the Palestinian groups targeting Israelis, or Al Qaeda targeting the United States. So, it's seen as a long drawn-out process. But, it's seen as a particularly appealing and cost-effective one for the terrorist organizations mounting it.

BRUCE HOFFMAN (CONTINUED)

And, the reason I say that is because, on average, a suicide bombing costs between fifty and a hundred and fifty dollars. But, because of the drama inherent in it, because of the fact that you have, really, the ultimate Smart Bomb, in other words, the suicide bomber can gain access, not only to the target, but get right up close next to the target, and, therefore, the carnage is all the more greater, there's tremendous media attention.

BRUCE HOFFMAN (CONTINUED)

So, for terrorist groups, balancing out the pluses and minus, if they can mobilize sufficient members of the organization to be willing to kill themselves, in essence, this probably returns, not to be too crass about it, but more bang for the buck.

JIM MORET

And, you've seen, then, the evolution of the suicide bombing. Bring us through the brief history of this, as a terrorist method.

BRUCE HOFFMAN

Originally, we saw suicide bombings that were directed, primarily, against military diplomatic facilities. And, this was in the early 1980's, and the mid 1980's, particularly against US and Israeli military and diplomatic targets in Lebanon. But, what we've seen, in the 1990's, and especially in the opening years of the 21st Century, is the use of suicide bombers much more against civilian targets. And, there, I think, the purposes are several fold.

BRUCE HOFFMAN (CONTINUED)

On the one hand, it's designed, as I said earlier, to wear down the resolve, to resist the terrorists, to break the will, or sap the morale, of the terrorist opponents. But, I think it goes further than that. It's also designed to shrink the space of these countries. In other words, to make people paranoid, fearful, to venture from their apartments, to turn a population into, in essence, a seething paranoid mass, that, in turn, becomes uniphobic, suspicious of their fellow citizens. And, therefore, really, to erode the fundamentals of trust upon which society is based.

JIM MORET

And, you've looked, specifically, at life in Israel, and how it's changed as a result of suicide bombings. What have you noticed?

BRUCE HOFFMAN

In particular, going to a restaurant, or a bar, or a cafe, for example, isn't the same proposition it is virtually any place else in the world, where you push open the door, you go in and you ask for a table, and you sit down. In Israel, now, no matter what the size of the eating or social establishment, you have, on the one hand, a security guard, who is stopping you, who's asking you if you're armed, and then, somewhat unobtrusively, frisking you, to make sure that you don't have suicide belt or vest strapped to you.

BRUCE HOFFMAN (CONTINUED)

Or, alternatively, for those businesses that, either, can't afford a security guard, or are unwilling to pass the costs on to their customers, they keep the door locked. So, you go to a restaurant, you push open the door, and it's unlocked. You have to knock. And, then, the maitre d', or a waiter, or a waitress, comes over, sizes you up, determines whether you're a threat or not, and only then unlocks the door and admits you to the restaurant, or the bar, or the cafe.

JIM MORET

And, in looking at the United State, since September 11th attacks, what have you seen? I suppose you have seen that we have now become accustomed to security measures which were almost unthinkable just several years ago.

BRUCE HOFFMAN

Well, that's exactly the point. In Israel, things that, even two years ago, would have seemed completely unrealistic and fanciful, such as restaurants would lock doors, or supermarkets with security guards that frisk people upon entering, has now become normal. And, this increased sense of security is part of the new normality. It's part of the trade-off that society has to make now, to ensure the, not just the safety and security of their citizens, but even the freedom.

BRUCE HOFFMAN (CONTINUED)

That, they can feel that can venture outside to socialize, to engage in the normal conduct of daily business, or social interactions. Now, in the United States, obviously, we haven't gone that far. But, since September 11th, we have seen a c-change in the way security is conducted in the United States. How may office buildings does one walk into, now, that, you not only have to sign in, but you have to show a picture ID.

BRUCE HOFFMAN (CONTINUED)

Certainly, the transformation of the security at our airports, with the Transportation Security Agency. So, we've also progressed down that path. Fortunately, we haven't been confronted with exactly the same sort of daily regimen of terrorism that the Israelis have, so we haven't gone quite as far, but, nonetheless, our own sense of security, and sense of safety, and security measures that we now regard as normal, which would have been considered outlandish before September 11th, has, similarly, changed our society.

JIM MORET

One of the troubling aspects, though, when you try to prevent these attacks, you often turn, or counter-terrorism experts turn, to profilers. And, it was once the case that the suicide bombers used to be male, typically, seventeen to twenty-3 years old, unmarried. You're not seeing that anymore, are you?

BRUCE HOFFMAN

No. And, it's not even a pattern that's confined to Israel, either. You're seeing more women involved in these attacks. And, women have the advantage, firstly, if there are male security forces deployed there. Naturally, especially in societies where there's greater reluctance, and women are much more modest, to physically search women. Women can also pretend to be pregnant, and, therefore, carry even a larger bomb on their person.

BRUCE HOFFMAN (CONTINUED)

We've also seen cases where, rather than the stereotype of suicide bombers being young, from relatively poor backgrounds, relatively uneducated, we see, now, in Israel, in the past few years, two sons of millionaires, for example, or, in Palestine, I should say, two sons of millionaires. September 11th hijackers, highly educated individuals, from very comfortable middle, upper middle-class socioeconomic backgrounds, very stable family environments.

BRUCE HOFFMAN (CONTINUED)

And, in some instances, too, you find middle-aged people. Men in their, even in their late forties, married with children. So, the ability to profile has really been changed by the diversity of suicide bombers today.

JIM MORET

The view used to be suicide bombers acted alone. That's not what you've discovered. What, in your view, is involved in the planning? And, what is the overall goal of the terrorists, in using suicide bombers?

BRUCE HOFFMAN

Well, many terrorist organizations seek to portray the use of suicide attacks as the epitome, the ultimate demonstration, of a deep, profound frustration and desperation humiliation. Now, I'm not saying that, in many places where there are suicide bombers those factors are not present, and are, in a fact of daily life. But, rather, often, the suicide terrorists are portraying, they're portrayed as lone individuals.

BRUCE HOFFMAN (CONTINUED)

What, really, one sees everywhere, not just in the Israeli-Palestine context, is that, what's behind suicide bombing is an organizational imperative. In other words, that the terrorist organizations, themselves, have identified suicide bombing, not just as extremely effective, and not just as very cost-effective, but as an instrument of war. And, in this sense, rather than looking for a needle in a haystack, the lone suicide bomber, on the loose in a city, what we really have to focus on is the logistical tail that is attached to that suicide bomber.

BRUCE HOFFMAN (CONTINUED)

In other words, the recruiters who bring these people into the terrorist organizations, the reconnaissance and intelligence agencies scout out likely targets, the quarter masters who assemble the bomb-making components, the bombmakers themselves, and then, the handlers, people who are skilled at actually transporting the suicide bomber to his, or her, intended target. So, again, part of the terrorist organization's strategy, and part of the psychological warfare they engage in, is to portray this as one individual.

BRUCE HOFFMAN (CONTINUED)

And, of course, then one has a sense of complete frustration. How can you stop lone individuals. What we really have to look at is more of an organizational process.

JIM MORET

In our final thirty seconds, what, in your view, is the potential for these types of suicide bombings within the United States?

BRUCE HOFFMAN

We've already had it in the US. September 11th was a suicide attack. In 1997, two Palestinians, in Brooklyn, New York, plotted a suicide attack on the New York City subway. In Timothy McVey's (unintelligible) autobiography, American Terrorist, not once, but on four occasions, he mentions how he had thought of turning the 1995 attack on the Murr Building into a suicide bombing. We've already had it here. The question is, will we see more of them? And, what should we be doing, now, to prepare for this threat?

JIM MORET

On that note, Bruce Hoffman, director of the Washington DC office of the RAND Corporation, and author of, Inside Terrorism, thanks for your viewpoints.

BRUCE HOFFMAN

Thank you.

JIM MORET

Today's program was produced by ...

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