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CURRENT UPDATES: February 23, 2007

Dear Friends,

Well, we knew it had to happen sometime, right?

The British are pulling out of Iraq--not all at once and not tomorrow-- but they are on their way. Denmark has also announced that they will be withdrawing their troops.

Once these two are gone, the coalition of the willing will have dwindled to a cohort of the will-less (to leave, anyway) which includes South Korea, Poland, Georgia, Australia, Romania, El Salvador and Bulgaria. South Korea is the only nation listed with more than 1,000 soldiers and they are said to be considering a withdrawal as well.

In an interview with ABC News, Vice President Dick Cheney said he saw the decision as "an affirmation that there are parts of Iraq where things are going pretty well." Bush called it a "sign of success," maybe because he hopes that the UK and Denmark will join in the next invasion on his wish-list-to Iran.

If you find the ATRC E-update useful-- you forward it to friends, mention it at cocktail parties, use the analysis and information in your work... please encourage others to sign up for it. We like to keep it growing!

Have a good weekend,

Bill Hartung
Frida Berrigan

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I: WAR WITH IRAN? An Update

II. NORTH KOREA: Sign of Hope

III. BLACKWATER: The Rise of the World's Most Powerful Mercenary Army

IV: SUPPORT THE TROOPS: Roaches, Mouse-Droppings and Mindless Bureaucracy at Walter Reade

V: HAVE A HEART: Senate Works to Ban Cluster Bombs

I. WAR WITH IRAN? An Update

The Bush administration's continuing attempts to demonize Iran - and to blame it for ongoing violence in Iraq - raise once again the question of whether they are engaging in saber-rattling or sowing the seeds for war.

Recent administration assertions bear an eerie similarity to the kinds of charges and misstatements that paved the path to war with Iraq. The difference this time around is that the public, the press, and the Congress are much more skeptical than they were last time aroun

The recent fiasco over the alleged role of the Iranian government in providing advanced improvised explosive devices (IEDs) - known as explosively formed projectiles (EFPs) -- to their allies in Iraq is a case in point. First there was a closed door briefing in which some weapons were displayed and charges were made that their transfer to Iraq had been approved at the Òhighest levelsÓ of the Iranian government. Then, Gen. Peter Pace, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, argued that the presence of the weapons in Iraq was no proof that they had been sent at the behest of top Iranian leaders. President Bush topped off the affair by suggesting that it doesn't matter whether the Iranian leaders approved the transfer of the weapons, that the point is that "they're there" killing American troops, and that the U.S. needs to take whatever steps necessary to protect the troops.

During the war in Iraq, similar assertions about Iraq's alleged nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons capabilities were taken at face value by many in the press and the Congress, and only began to be questioned when the administration's momentum for war was unstoppable. Continuing criticism of the Bush administration's charges vis-ˆ-vis Iran must be driven by a strong public outcry that keeps the press and the Congress honest on this issue.

Increased naval deployments of Iran's coast along with the aggressive rhetoric noted above suggest a move toward war. But the top military leadership of the U.S. is still opposed to the idea, and it is not clear that administration ideologues can win this political fight. Our own view is that war with Iran is not likely - but we can't afford to rely on that bet. Activism aimed at heading off a U.S. intervention must move full speed ahead.

For an alternative view on the odds of U.S. military action against Iran, see Norman Dombey's piece in the London Review of Books, which argues that U.S. air strikes against Iran could begin as early as this summer (link below).

USEFUL RESOURCES ON IRAN:

Our colleague Carl Conetta, from the Project on Defense Alternatives, has compiled a "Confronting Iran"resource page that offers critical perspectives on the current crisis, its origins, and implications.
http://www.comw.org/pda/0702iran.html

Norman Dombey, "Iran and the Bomb," London Review of Books, January 25, 2007.
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v29/n02/print/domb01_.html


National Iranian American Council (NIAC)
The non-partisan, non-sectarian organization has an action site that provides links so one can send a "No War on Iran: message to Congress:
http://capwiz.com/niacouncil/callalert/index.tt?alertid=9239856&type=CO

They also point out that Senator Joseph Biden, the head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, recently said he would initiate Òa constitutional confrontationÓ with the Bush Administration if military action was taken against Iran without Congressional approval.

"Talking Points: Escalating Threats of U.S. Attacks Against Iran"Phyllis Bennis, Institute for Policy Studies, 14 February 2007
http://www.unitedforpeace.org/article.php?id=3521 

II. NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR AGREEMENT: Sign of Hope

When even the Bush administration gets down to real diplomacy, it's a sign of hope. The announcement in mid-February of a deal in which North Korea will take the first steps towards dismantling its nuclear program in exchange for large supplies of fuel oil and eventual political recognition sounds like a Òman bites dogÓ story. What moved the Bush administration to talk rather than fight?

Various theories have been proposed. One is that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice convinced President Bush that this could be a major foreign policy achievement. In contrast to the war in Iraq and the administration's feeble efforts to promote peace between Israel and the Palestinians, there is no question that the North Korea deal shines brightly as a real accomplishment -- if it sticks.

Other, more realist factors may have come into play as well. U.S. military planners have long noted that military force is not a viable option in the North Korean case. Absent far better intelligence than currently exists, air strikes to destroy all of Pyongyang's nuclear facilities would almost surely fail. Nor could they address North Korea's existing stocks of bomb making materials, which are believed to be enough to build as many as eight to ten nuclear weapons.

A war to force Òregime changeÓ in North Korea could be won by the U.S., but it would come at far too high a price - the South Korean capital of Seoul is close to the North Korean border, and Pyongyang's non-nuclear arsenal could kill several hundred thousand South Koreans in such a conflict.

Furthermore, the other parties to the talks - China, Japan, South Korea and Russia - were all supportive of a diplomatic solution, and helped keep the talks alive during periods of U.S. opposition to or disinterest in moving forward. The fact that South Korea, the country arguably most at risk from a North Korean bomb, was a firm supporter of a practical diplomatic solution made it harder for the administration to avoid negotiating.

And it can't be overlooked that Christopher Hill, the U.S. representative to the talks, did a good job once he was free to negotiate, which meant in part being allowed to work around hardliners like Vice President Dick Cheney and the neocons sprinkled throughout the administration's foreign policy and national security bureaucracies.

The first phase of the agreement calls for North Korea to take concrete steps within 60 days, including closing down its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, getting inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency on the ground, and beginning to reveal the locations of its other nuclear facilities. In exchange it will receive 50,000 tons of fuel oil at the end of the 60-day period.

Conservatives inside and outside of the Bush administration have already been vigorously attacking the deal, not only in its own right but because they fear, in the words of Washington Post reporter Glenn Kessler, that Òthe administration's willingness to bend on North Korea does not bode well for hard-line policies toward Iran, Palestinians or other issues.Ó Let's hope they're right.

USEFUL RESOURCES ON NORTH KOREA:

"U.S. Envoy Christopher Hill Discusses North Korea Nuke Deal," Lehrer Newshour, February 15, 2007, transcript:
www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/jan-june07/hill_02-15.html

Joseph Cirincione, "North Korean Pressure Points: New Nuclear Accord Reflects New Realities,"February 13, 2007, available at: www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/north_korea.html

George Perkovich, ÒImperfect Progress,Ó Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2007, available at www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=print&id=19025

Leon V. Sigal, "Tug of War with Shorter Rope: Hard-liners Working to Trip Up Nuclear Talks,"Chicago Tribune, February 15, 2007, available at:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-0702150074feb15,1,789675.story?ctrack=1&cset=true

III. BLACKWATER: The Rise of the World's Most Powerful Mercenary Army

Blackwater. The name crops up regularly, but never in relationship to good news. Fallujah, New Orleans, House and Senate investigations of bilking, fraud and abuse, bereft families. Most recently, a helicopter owned by private security firm Blackwater was downed in Iraq.

Investigative journalist Jeremy Scahill, who won awards as a correspondent for DemocracyNow and is now a Puffin writing fellow at The Nation magazine, has pulled all these bad stories together into a terrible and complete picture of "the world's most powerful mercenary army."

Scahill follows the company's "epic"rise from 1996-- when visionary Blackwater executives opened a training camp "to fulfill the anticipated demand for government outsourcing of firearms and related security training"-- to a multi-national corporation that places a high premium on helping America fight the global war on terrorism. He builds the case that the story of Blackwater is the "story about the future of war, democracy and governance"because the company is "the living embodiment of the changes wrought by the revolution in military affairs and the privatization agenda radically expanded by the Bush administration under the guise of the war on terror."

The book is as compelling as it exhaustive, and it provides critical context and analysis to the "moving target"of private military corporations as Democratic members of Congress flex their muscle with investigative hearings. Representative Henry Waxman held hearings in the Government Oversight and Reform Subcommittee on February 7, 2007 to investigate the costs of Blackwater's security operations and the adequacy of federal oversight of Blackwater and other security contractors.

The hearings began with testimony from the families of the four Blackwater employees killed in Fallujah in March 2004. ÒFollowing that horrific incident on March 31, 2004, we turned to Blackwater for answers. What we received was appalling. We were told that the information surrounding the circumstances in which our loved ones were killed was "confidential."When we insisted on seeing the report concerning the incident, Blackwater told us that we would have to sue them to get it,"began the testimony.

After recounting the protections promised the four men, and the facts that Blackwater did not provide even maps or routes, much less armored vehicles and rear gunners, the testimony continues: "Lack of preparation and the strive to make as much money as quickly as possible, even if not 100% ready, is Blackwater's style of business. This style was confirmed just last month when Blackwater's president, Gary Jackson, told the Harvard Business Review: "I constantly push for the 80% solution that is executable now, over the 100% solution we might be able to devise in another three weeks.' An 80% solution means that 20% of the operators are dead. Blackwater actually lost 9 of its 34 operators in just over two months. That means that only 74% survived-which is pretty close to Blackwater's goal of 80%."

Read the whole family testimony, Blackwater's response, and the discussion amongst members of Congress, at http://oversight.house.gov/story.asp?ID=1165

On Democracy Now, soon after the hearing Jeremy Scahill concludes that within the context of the privatization of war, companies like Blackwater benefit from "a culture of impunity in Iraq. These guys are killed, and their numbers don't get counted. And they kill people, and they don't get prosecuted."

A Houston Chronicle article at the end of January cites Labor Department statistics to determine that 770 civilian contractors have been killed in Iraq since March 2003. In 2006 alone, 301 were killed with 124 deaths in the last three months of the year. Another 7,761 contractors were injured as of December 31, 2006 said the Labor Department, which compiled the statistics at the request of the newspaper.

Learn more about the book, read articles by Scahill and find ordering information at http://www.blackwaterbook.com/

The January 28, 2007 Houston Chronicle article, entitled "Contractor Deaths in Iraq Nearing 800"would not be found online. Feel free to email berrigaf@newschool.edu for a copy of the front-page article.

IV. SUPPORT THE TROOPS:

Roaches, Mouse-Droppings and Mindless Bureaucracy at Walter Reade

We should all be cringing about the state of Walter Reade hospital, where wounded soldiers from Iraq and Afghanistan return to convalesce and recover.

A ground-breaking investigative article by Washington Post reporters Anne Hull and Dana Priest found that the facilities where recovering soldiers live for months and even years smell "like greasy carryout" and are filled with signs of neglect: "mouse-droppings, belly-up cockroaches, stained carpets, cheap mattresses." There are holes in the walls and black mold creeping through the plaster. But the neglect does not stop at the physical structure-soldiers and their families told of endless bureaucracy, lost paper-work, no follow-up and no support.

Soldiers on dozens of medications don't see psychiatrists, Purple Heart awardees are told they never served in Iraq, and databases don't communicate with each other, meaning that paperwork must be filed in ten different places. There is little support for family members who come to help their sons and daughters, husbands and wives. Evis Morales spent two weeks sleeping in the lobby of the hospital where her son was receiving treatment because no one told her there was a free shuttle back to her government paid hotel room, and she only spoke Spanish. "They can have Spanish speaking recruits to convince my son to go into the Army," she told the Washington Post,"Why can't they have Spanish-speaking translators when he's injured?"

Marine Sergeant Ryan Grover spent 16 months at Walter Reed recovering from amputation. He told the Washington Post, "We don't know what to do. The people who are supposed to know don't have the answers. It's a nonstop process of stalling. We've done our duty. We fought the war. But whoever the people are back here who are supposed to give us the easy transition should be doing it."

President Bush visited Walter Reade right before Christmas as said, "We owe [the soldiers] all we can give then. Not only for when they're in harm's way, but when they come to help them adjust if they have wounds or help them adjust after their time in the service."

With his new request for war spending, the price tag on the war in Iraq creeps toward $800 billion ($507 billion to date, with $230 billion in 2007 funding and new requirements). The Office of Management and Budget and the Congressional Budget Office disagree over the costs of the surge, with OMB estimating an addition $5.6 billion to send 21,500 more troops into Iraq. The CBO says that is way too low, and puts the figure at closer to $9 to $13 billion for a four-month escalation, or $20 to $27 billion for a sustained escalation over the next year.  Just to throw another figure into the mix, the President's overall request for the Pentagon is $481.4 billion.

None of the billions going to fund the war, the surge, or the Pentagon are going to going to be seen and felt in the lives of the men and women caught in the hell -- "the holding ground for physically and psychologically damaged outpatients"-that Walter Reade has become and that Hull and Priest describe in such heart-breaking and frustrated detail in their article.

The next time you hear Tony Snow or George Bush invoke "soldiers in harms way" as a reason to do something (like invade Iran, for example) think about Staff Sergeant John Daniel Shannon, a 43-year-old who came to Walter Reade with a shattered eye and skull. When he was transferred to the outpatient wards he was handed a map and sent on his way. Barely able to walk and completely disoriented, he stumbled around the 113-acre institution for hours asking directions to his "new home." Once he found his room, he sat there for weeks before his case manager found him.

Priest and Hull's series has provoked outrage and calls for investigations, and on February 22nd, the Washington Post reported that Gen. Richard A. Cody, the Army vice chief of staff, announced he is personally committed to upgrading the facility. Teams have already moved in to remove moldy carpets, fix broken elevators and make other needed repairs. But the bureaucratic lethargy and disorganization will be a bigger task to tackle.

Representative Thomas M. Davis III (R-VA), the top Republican on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, was quoted in the February 22 article saying, "You could put all of the wounded soldiers in the Ritz-Carlton and it wouldn't fix the personnel, management and recordkeeping problems that keep them languishing in outpatient limbo out there for months while paperwork from 11 disjointed systems gets shuffled and lost.Ó

To read the whole series of articles, visit

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/linkset/2007/02/21/LI2007022100671.html

To hear Veterans respond, and learn more, visit: Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans Association

http://www.optruth.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7&Itemid=34

Iraq Veterans Against the War:

http://www.ivaw.org/projects

Military Families Speak Out:

http://www.mfso.org/article.php?list=type&type=6

V. HAVE A HEART: Senate Works to Ban Cluster Bombs

On Valentine's Day, Senator Feinstein took the Senate podium to argue for the "Cluster Munitions Civilian Protection Action" which she introduced with Leahy, Mikulski and Sanders.

If passed, the legislation would ban the United States from using cluster bombs in civilian areas and would prohibit the U.S. from exporting cluster bombs to any other country that would use these weapons on civilians. The legislation would also ban U.S. funding for the use, sale or transfer of cluster munitions that might drop explosive duds that later explode, killing innocent civilians.

Winding down a speech full of facts about cluster weapons, Feinstein argued that "each death that results from an unexploded American bomblets weakens American diplomacy and American valuesÉ unexploded cluster bombs fuel anger and resentment and make security, stabilization and reconstruction efforts that much harder.

In Oslo, Norway, more than 40 nations met February 20-23 to discuss an international treaty to ban cluster munitions. The United States did not attend. But the participating nations came up with a strong declaration and a plan of action by the end of their meeting. As Steve Goose, Co-Chair of the Cluster Munition Coalition commented, "The momentum has to continue and those states still outside this process need to get onboard if they are serious about protecting civilians from the effects of armed conflict."

Read the legislation, which is now before the Foreign Relations Committee,
http://www.fcnl.org/issues/item.php?item_id=2338&issue_id=138

Info on the Oslo Meeting, and Human Rights Watch's work on cluster bombs, visit
http://www.hrw.org/doc/?t=arms_clusterbombs



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