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UPDATES: 18 December 2002
Dear Friends,
Kissinger resigned. So did George Mitchell. Trent Lott might not be far behind. We are delighted by this new trend, and hope that it will catch on at the White House and the Pentagon.
Before we get into the meat of our December email update, first the good news and then the funny news.
THE GOOD NEWS
A Los Angeles Times poll published yesterday (12/17) found that two-thirds of Americans believe that Bush has failed to make the case for war in Iraq. The article says, "The overwhelming majority of respondents -- 90% -- said they do not doubt that Iraq is developing weapons of mass destruction. But in the absence of new evidence from U.N. inspectors, 72% of respondents, including 60% of Republicans, said the president has not provided enough evidence to justify starting a war with Iraq." As Washington catapults towards war anyway, that opposition is manifesting itself in protests and rallies and trips to Iraq.
THE FUN STUFF
The caroling season is upon us (hurray) again. A group is planning to carol at Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's house, with grim lyrics to the tune of "Silent Night." One verse goes,
"Bomb Iraq, Let's attack
Take over their soil
'Cause we need their oil.
We're sorry if women and children get killed
but the gas tanks in our SUVs must be filled.
Bomb Iraq to pieces. Bomb Iraq for peace."
A slightly more upbeat (but no less politically relevant) song is sung to the tune of "If you're happy and you know if clap your hands." It was written by John Robbins and published on CommonDreams.org, December 16, 2002
If You're Happy And You Know It Bomb Iraq
If you cannot find Osama, bomb Iraq.
If the markets are a drama, bomb Iraq.
If the terrorists are Saudi,
And your alibi is shoddy,
And your tastes remain quite gaudy,
Bomb Iraq.
If you never were elected, bomb Iraq.
If your mood is quite dejected, bomb Iraq.
If you think that SUVs,
Are the best thing since sliced cheese,
And your father you must please,
Bomb Iraq.
And it goes on, each verse more brilliant, scathing and peppier than the last. Sing it all, all night at Common Dreams.org
But enough with the fun and games. On to the tough stuff.
Happy Holidays and may we see peace in the New Year,
Bill Hartung
Michelle Ciarrocca
Frida Berrigan
In this update:
I. THE PEACE MOVEMENT GAINING MOMENTUM
II. MISSILE DEFENSE TEST FAILED, DEPLOY ANYWAY?
III. NEW RESOURCES
I. THE PEACE MOVEMENT GAINING MOMENTUM AMONG "AVERAGE" AMERICANS
By Michelle Ciarrocca, Senior Research Associate
As mentioned above, in a recent poll the Los Angeles Times found that more than two-thirds of Americans believe that President Bush has failed to make the case for war with Iraq is justified. This is just one more indicator of the wave of dissent finally being heard and seen throughout the United States. At the same time, 30 members of the "Iraq Peace Team" -- many of them Americans -- have arrived in Baghdad. The trip was organized by Voices in the Wilderness.
While the months leading up to the November elections were marked by the largest anti-war rallies since the height of the anti-Vietnam War movement, media coverage was scarce. But recently, it has been heartening to see -- on an almost daily basis in December -- increasing coverage of the "new" peace movement. Growing and growing and growing. People are outraged at the possibility of going to war in Iraq and the extremes of the USA Patriot Act, a federal law that has broadened the government's ability to use secret searches, wiretaps and other covert surveillance techniques in pursuit of terrorists. While the usual peaceniks have been out and about rallying against Bush's war posturing, the media is talking about the "everyday" people joining the movement. In matter of fact, we know the peace movement has always been "everyday" people, but the media is finally taking note and expanding its own notion of a peace activist.
One news article commented on the various groups partaking in the anti-war demonstrations saying, "This is what the anti-war movement looks like -- not just the collection of fringe characters and political oddballs some news outlets portray. Yet media coverage seems stuck in a 1960s and 1970s Vietnam War-era frame, with journalists confining themselves to protest stories and visual images reminiscent of those times." The times (and the portraits) are a changing.
The Sacramento Bee ran a story on December 5th saying, "Anti-War Protesters are Flowing in From the Mainstream." A headline in the Sunday, December 15th San Francisco Chronicle read "'Ordinary People' Join Peace Protests." And the December 10th Washington Post commented on the new "Peace Warriors" saying, "For now, Anarchists, Socialists, Quakers, And More Are Marching to the Same Drum." In response to the anti-terrorist USA Patriot Act, the Los Angeles Times noted the "New Breed of Patriots Speaking Up." And in Ann Arbor, the Michigan Daily reported on December 3rd the "City Council Votes for Anti-War Resolution." At least two dozen other cities throughout the country have passed resolutions against the war in Iraq.
The December 10th war protests were timed to coincide with International Human Rights Day. Here's a sampling of what the various mainstream papers have been saying about the recent anti-war efforts:
"From a morning blockade of a federal building in Chicago to a lunchtime march to the White House to an evening discussion at a YWCA in Detroit, a cross-section of activists, celebrities and everyday Americans held more than 150 events across the country today to oppose a war with Iraq. Organized by a coalition of more then 70 groups called United for Peace, the events ranged in attendance from several dozen at Youngstown, Ohio, and Mineola, NY to several hundred in Santa Fe, NM, and Oakland, CA. Organizers and participants said the diverse turnout represented a growing wave of popular dissent, even as the country inches closer to military action." (New York Times, Dec. 11, 2002)
"The extraordinary array of groups questioning the Bush administration's rationale for an invasion of Iraq includes longtime radical groups such as the Workers World Party, but also groups not known for taking stands against the government. There is a labor movement against the war, led by organizers of the largest unions in the country; a religious movement against the war, which includes leaders of virtually every mainstream denomination; a veterans movement against the war, led by those who fought Iraq in the Persian Gulf a decade ago; business leaders against the war, led by corporate leaders; an antiwar movement led by relatives of victims of the Sept. 11, 2002, attacks; and immigrant groups against the war." (Washington Post, Dec. 2, 2002)
Who are these "new" peaceniks, groups and organizations against the war in Iraq? (Obviously, this is not a complete list, simply a compilation from some of the recent news stories mentioned above.)
· Daphne Reed, a retired Hampshire College drama teacher, started a movement called Mothers Against War. The Washington Post noted that most members are grandmothers in their seventies, who spend hours a day on the internet, reading and spreading information on Iraq and the U.S., and planning marches, email campaigns and teach-ins.
· Joan Blades, a Berkeley entrepreneur who co-founded MoveOn.org, an internet based group, which posted a petition in early December urging Bush to let the UN weapons inspections process work. She expects to get 20,000 to 30,000 signatures in 24 hours, not unrealistic for a group that raised $1 million in a few days for four anti-war candidates.
· President of the AFL-CIO John J. Sweeney sent a letter to Congress in early October expressing reservations about the justifications for invasion. The AFL-CIO has 13 million members. Several thousand union members have signed up against the war, and many more are joining every week.
· The National Council of Churches, which represents 36 Protestant and Orthodox denominations, with 50 million members), is facilitating antiwar events for traditionally liberal institutions and conservative churches. The group is launching a "Seasons of Peacemaking" campaign.
· Black Voices for Peace, founded by Damu Smith, is a Washington based group which began a few weeks after 9/11 and has more than 3,000 members now. The group is planning its own rallies and forums in Washington over the weekend of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, Jan. 18-19.
· United for Peace - a website started by Global Exchange for groups to list events commemorating the Sept. 11 anniversary, has emerged into a national network coordinating events for more than 70 peace groups nationwide.
· Women Against Military Madness in Minneapolis keeps selling out of its "Say No to War With Iraq" signs, about 1,000 have been sold so far.
And there's the celebrity protesters using their star power to protest the war. Although the Toronto Star was skeptical of their overall impact, reporting that "when the stars came out on Tuesday to protest the White House's inexorable march to war, most media shot them down." The paper went on to say that, "In a celebrity-obsessed culture, this speaks volumes about how dissent is a dirty word nowadays." According to the article, both CNN and MSNBC devoted no more than a minute to live coverage of the news conference held by Mike Farrell (Providence, M*A*S*H), Janeane Garofalo (The Larry Sanders Show), Martin Sheen (The West Wing) and about 100 other performers and military experts including Kim Basinger, Matt Damon, Susan Sarandon, Helen Hunt, and Noah Wyle. They all signed a letter titled "Win Without War," to coincide with the launch of a new coalition of organizations opposed to an unprovoked war with Iraq.
Commenting on his three-day trip to Baghdad, actor Sean Penn said, "I'm here for a simple reason, which is because I'm a patriot and an American who has benefited enormously from being an American, and because I had areas of personal concern and conscience that led me to come to Iraq." Penn also paid for a $56,000 advertisement in the Washington Post in October accusing President Bush of stifling debate on Iraq.
So, what's different about this peace movement compared to previous ones? Many people have pointed out that, in this case, the peace movement is distinctive because it is hoping to prevent a war, rather than reacting to a war that has already started.
II. MISSILE DEFENSE TEST FAILED, DEPLOY ANYWAY?
On Wednesday, December 11th, in the wee-hours of the morning, the Pentagon's ground-based missile defense system attempted to intercept a mock warhead, but it did not get very far because the "kill vehicle" failed to separate from its booster. As with other failures of the missile defense system, officials were quick to brush it off, saying the malfunction had nothing to do with the advanced missile technology. Air Force Lt. Col. Rick Lehner of the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) said that separating boosters from their payloads is something the U.S. has been doing successfully for 50 years. However, the same problem occurred during an intercept test in July 2000. The $100 million intercept test was the third failure in eight intercept tests of the missile defense system conducted over the past three years.
The tricky part of this test was supposed to be the fact that the Pentagon was attempting the intercept test at night. All other aspects of the test were the same as the previous intercept test, which took place in October. The kill vehicle is built by Raytheon and a modified Minuteman ICBM is being used as the booster until a more advanced booster rocket can be developed. This test was supposed to be the last intercept test to use the surrogate boost vehicle. Defense Daily reported that after this test there will be a delay in the test schedule as the MDA works to get the Ft. Greely test-bed facility ready. The Pentagon hopes to have the facility up and running by 2004.
If the tests are still using surrogate parts, and some parts haven't even been developed, let alone tested, what does the Bush administration plan to deploy? Good question. According to a press release from the Pentagon, they'll be employing an "evolutionary approach to the development and deployment of missile defenses over time. This means there is no final or fixed missile defense architecture." What it really means is the Pentagon will deploy anything and everything related to missile defense -- whether it works or not.
The initial plan is for up to 20 ground-based interceptors located at Ft. Greely, Alaska (16 interceptors) and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California (4 interceptors); up to 20 sea-based interceptors on Aegis ships; deployment of PAC-3 systems to intercept short and medium range ballistic missiles; and land, sea, and space based sensors, including existing early warning satellites, an upgraded radar now located at Shemya, Alaska, a new sea-based X-band radar, upgraded existing early warning radars in the United Kingdom and Greenland and use of radars and other sensors now on Aegis cruisers and destroyers. The Pentagon plans to continue its efforts to encourage international participation.
In his statement on December 17th, Bush made reference to 9/11 saying the event "underscored that our Nation faces unprecedented threats." He went on to say that the "gravest danger of all" facing the United States is a hostile state or terrorist group armed with weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them.
Yet even the December 2001 National Intelligence Estimate (released after 9/11) disagrees with Bush's claims. The NIE noted that "US territory is more likely to be attacked" with weapons of mass destruction by countries or terrorist groups using "ships, trucks, airplanes or other means" than by a long-range ballistic missile. Those delivery systems are "less expensive than developing and producing ICBMs," and unlike missiles, non-missile systems "can be overtly developed and employed" with the source being "masked in an attempt to evade retaliation." They can also be deployed in ways that will evade ballistic missile defenses, rendering the costly proposed investments in these systems irrelevant.
Resources:
The Arms Trade Resource Center has a new press release on Bush's announcement to accelerate deployment and a list of all our NMD resources at
Union of Concerned Scientists - Reports point out the limitations and artificialities in the testing program.
The Council for a Livable World - A good listing of recent news articles and administration statements of missile defense.
The Center for Defense Information - Ongoing coverage on various aspects of missile defense -- technology, costs, threats, etc.
National Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Preemption or Prevention? The White House has released its National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction
III. NEW RESOURCES
A. COST OF IRAQ WAR
A report issued by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences finds that the political, military, and economic consequences of war with Iraq could be extremely costly to the United States. The report, "War with Iraq: Costs, Consequences, and Alternatives," is being published under the auspices of the Academy's Committee on International Security Studies (CISS).
William D. Nordhaus (Yale University) estimates the costs of war with Iraq in scenarios that are both favorable and unfavorable to the United States. He projects that the war could cost $99 billion over the next decade in the best case, and in excess of $1.9 trillion during the same period in less favorable circumstances. Steven E. Miller (Harvard University) examines arguments that war with Iraq will be cheap, beneficial, and hard to avoid, and considers a number of potentially disastrous outcomes of a war with Iraq that have received scant public attention. Carl Kaysen (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), John D. Steinbruner (University of Maryland), and Martin B. Malin (American Academy of Arts and Sciences), examine the broader national security strategy behind the move toward a preventive war against Iraq.
War with Iraq: Costs, Consequences, and Alternatives is available on the web at: www.amacad.org/publications/occasional.htm
B. THE EDUCATION OF LIEUTENANT KERREY, Gregory Vistica, St. Martin's Press, 2002
Thirty-three years ago, Bob Kerrey led a commando raid in Vietnam that killed nearly two-dozen, unarmed women and children. Kerrey carried his secret through three decades of what was, by all appearances, a storybook existence: Medal of Honor recipient, self-made millionaire businessman, governor and a United States senator. So is Bob Kerrey a hero or a war criminal? This book searches Kerrey's life for the question: from his Navy SEAL training, to his aborted run for President and his difficult time at the New School University. As the United States again prepares for war, the book is a cautionary tale about good men who do bad things in combat.
For more information and ordering go to www.GregoryVistica.com
C. NEW SMALL ARMS REPORT
The Small Arms Survey recently published "Occasional Paper 7, Making Global Policy: The Case of Small Arms and Light Weapons," by Edward Laurance and Rachel Stohl.
This in-depth study assesses the implementation of the Programme of Action, decided upon at the July 2001 UN Small Arms Conference, examining ways in which states, NGOs and IGOs have responded to the challenge and analyzes the variety of recent multilateral initiatives.
To download this paper as a PDF, please visit: www.smallarmssurvey.org
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